As of November 15, the results of the 2024 presidential election are still rolling in, but the race is starting to look like a landslide. But not in favor of a front-running candidate, rather a landslide of voters opting not to participate in the election.
According to the University of Florida Election Lab, over 88 million eligible voters did not cast a ballot in the 2024 election.
This figure is derived from the voting-eligible population, not just registered voters, in the United States. The Election Lab defines the voting-eligible population as individuals of voting age (18 years or older) excluding ineligible noncitizens and felons. According to the lab, this provides a better measure of voter turnout.
If we consider that our elections are determined by the results of the electoral college, it becomes even more interesting to break the results down by state.
As many already know, to win a state's electoral college votes, a candidate must receive the most popular votes in that state, which awards all of its electors (except in Maine and Nebraska, which use a proportional allocation system).
The above visualization hypotheses the results of the 2024 election as if there were a third candidate called "didn't vote". The states that are colored yellow are those which had a higher number of abstaining voters than votes for either Trump or Harris. The elevation of the state is representative of the relative electoral college votes in that state.
In this hypothetical election, the candidate "didn't vote" would have won the presidency by a large margin, gaining 288 electoral college votes (it takes 270 to win the presidency). Trump would be a distant second with 152 and Harris in third with 98.
What does this all mean?
In short, about 36% of the country’s voting-eligible population, did not vote in the 2024 general election. Voter turnout appears to be higher in battleground states, and more dismal in states such as California, New York, and Texas. Voters in these states may believe their vote will not influence the results of the election.
Based on historical data, this trend is likely to continue. The past four elections have each seen a minimum of 80 million eligible voters abstain from the election.
Is this pattern a result of the electoral college system? Would results be different with higher voter turnout? Let us know your thoughts below.